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Policy Research
A Comparison of Financial Indicators: The Case of Detroit
Samuel B. Stone, Akheil Singla, James Comeaux, Charlotte Kirshner
December 2015
This article looks to find particular events and trends that would indicate that bankruptcy was imminent in Detroit and looked to find if particular types of indicators performed better than others. Disaggregated indicators and a 10-point scale approach yielded mixed signals but the authors did find that indicators in the asset and liability, operating solvency, and business type activity categories were the most useful financial indicators in explaining how Detroit tried to meet fiscal challenges, where evaluating broad socioeconomic trends of the population decline and a deteriorating economy explain the root causes of Detroit’s fiscal challenges.
Segregation and Inequality in Public Goods
Jessica Trounstine
October 2015
This article investigates disparities in public goods in U.S. cities and suggests that segregation along racial lines contributes to public goods inequalities across cities. The author suggests that segregated cities are politically polarized in nature and make it less likely that whites and racial and ethnic minorities will mutually support certain expenditures and taxes, therefore driving down collective investment. The author uses election data from 1990-2010 and demographic data matched to city finance data from 1982-2007 in more than 2,600 cities and avoids endogeneity in finance data by using the number of waterways in a city. The author finds that segregated municipalities spend less on a wide range of public goods and finds that public goods are segregated along racial lines because racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to live in communities that are residentially segregated.
Age, Race, Party, and Ideology: Generational Imprinting during the Obama Presidency
Gary C. Jacobson
April 2016
This article compiles the data of 344 Gallup Surveys from June 2009-June 2015 aggregately to document the distribution of current party identification and ideology among whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and those coming of political age during Obama’s presidency compared to earlier generations. Additionally, this article contextualizes the above findings to explore the political and social implications on the future electorate, specifically the 2016 election cycle. Overall, the author finds that whites have increasing become more Democratic in their political leanings during the 3 most recent administrations and that nonwhites, while still predominantly Democratic, have not seen significant variation in partisan leanings. Furthermore, the author finds that young Democrats, Republicans, and Independents tend to support Obama and are more moderate-liberal than prior generations and those 65+ years of age.
The Accumulation of (Dis)advantage: The Intersection of Gender and Race in the Long Term Wage Effect of Marriage
Siwei Cheng
May 2016
This article conducts a comprehensive analysis on the intersection of gender and race in the total long-term effect of marriage as well as its underlying mechanisms. Provided by individual longitudinal data via the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1979-2010, the author investigates separately for each gender-race subgroup, the extent to which the total effect of marriage is attributed to childbearing and work experience. The author finds that marriage accelerates wage growth for men yet limits wage growth for women cumulatively over the life course. The results indicate that black men receive a greater wage premium than white men at the time of marriage, but over time their wages increase are similarly; for women, the wage effects of marriage differ significantly, showing that white women experience a decreasing wage premium and an increasing wage penalty after marriage, whereas black women experience a steadily growing wage premium after getting married.
Inattention to Deferred Increases in Tax Bases: How Michigan Homebuyers are paying for Assessment Limits
Sebastien Bradley
June 2015
The article attempts to estimate the potential effects of property tax capitalization on houses in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The study points out that, due to a provision in Proposal A, property tax amounts are capped in their ability to increase, but uncap at the point of a change in ownership. Because of this provision, the study estimates that new homeowners are consistently over-paying for their homes because they do not factor in future tax burdens they will face when the property tax uncaps. Further, the study points out that information regarding taxes uncapping is not provided to prospective homeowners from realtors or mortgage lenders, and that these entities have no incentive to do so. The study also found evidence that when given information about future tax values homeowners significantly reduced the level of over-payment or possibly eliminated it completely. In 2005 a total of $30 million is estimated to have been collectively over payed in Ann Arbor alone, and the effect appears to be larger with lower income residents.
Incentivizing Time Shifting of Data: A Survey of Time Dependent Pricing for Internet Access
Soumya Sen
October 2012
The article attempts to analyze the increasing demand for data, especially mobile data, and compares various methods for preventing large degrees of data congestion. The article notes that current methods of congestion control such as pricing data by usage only partially alleviates congestion problems. The article brings up that in order to create efficient data usage, data needs to be charged based on the time it is being uses: this is called Time Dependent Pricing. Alternative methods of congestion control such as allowing individual companies to sponsor data usage for certain apps was discussed, however these were seen as contradictory to net neutrality which the article described as a negative. Overall, the article claims that current systems lead to large welfare losses.
Space debris and the need for space traffic control
Phillip A. Slann
November 2013
The article summarizes the talking points of a session in the summer Royal Aeronautical Society 2013 conference. The session focused on the issues of space debris and space traffic control. The speakers at the session urged that man-made space debris is building up at an alarming rate and that increased efforts need to be focused on debris mitigation. The speakers also noted that the technology to remove space debris is currently inadequate and that focus should be placed on developing fast and efficient means to control debris. There was also recommendations for increased regulation on the rights and responsibilities of individuals and organizations to maintain space. Certain methods of methods being developed to remove debris were discussed but they struggle in accuracy because the majority of space debris is currently small and hard to detect. To close, comments were also made on the need for traffic control across the globe for new satellites and universal frequencies for communication both in space and on earth.
Does Foreign Aid Increase Foreign Direct Investment?
Pablo Selaya, Eva Rytter Sunesen
July 2012
The article attempts to estimate the effect that foreign aid has on foreign direct investment in developing countries of various wealth. The study finds evidence that the effect of aid on foreign investment is highly dependent on the type of aid supplied. Foreign aid allocated towards capital improvements such as buildings and crop technology tends to have strong negative effects on the level of foreign direct investment. The study estimates that for every dollar spent on capital improvements $0.81 in foreign investment is reduced. However, when foreign aid is spent on so called complements to capital such as roads and infrastructure the opposite effect is seen and foreign investment increases likely due to increased value of capital investment. Overall, the study also found evidence that the net effect of aid on investment is small but positive.
On the Intended and Unintended Consequences of Enhanced U.S. Border and Interior Immigration Enforcement: Evidence from Mexican Deportees
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes
December 2014
The article examines responses from a large pool of Mexican citizens recently deported by the United States. The study attempts to estimate the consequences of increased border and interior immigration enforcement as captured by Operation Streamline and by Omnibus Immigration Laws. The study finds apprehension in borders affected by Operation Streamline did not have any significant effects on the willingness to attempt re-entry into the United States. However, apprehension in states with Omnibus Immigrations Laws was estimated to decrease willingness to attempt re-entry by 24 percentage points. The study also found that apprehension in borders with Operation Streamline in place were more likely to see immigrant engaging in life threatening behavior to enter the U.S, and more likely to be separated from family. Finally, the study estimates that as more areas adopt Omnibus Immigration Laws the percentage of immigrants receiving verbal and physical abuse increases significantly.
The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
Hugo Valin
January 2014
The article compares a variety of resent estimates on how the demand for food will shift worldwide by the year 2050. Overall the average demand for calories worldwide is expected to increase by roughly 74%. The lowest estimate of this has a 50 % increase. The study also estimates a shift towards more crop related food and less animal due to increased populations. The study also estimates that change in per-capita demand for food could decrease between 1.5-3% due to climate change. The study also estimates the high-income OECD countries will face small if any decreases in per capita demand for caloric consumption; however developing countries will vary tremendously. This effect is amplified when specifically applied to livestock. The projections further estimate a world population of roughly 9.3 billion and a doubling of average income per capita. This study did not include crops used to feed livestock into demand modeling.